Current Market Scenario-Gerard Associates

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

Sterling was weak on Friday, falling across the board after the U.K. Nationwide Consumer Confidence unexpectedly declined to a 20-month low. The decline in confidence could be largely attributed to the austerity measures and tax hikes next year. The budget cut could mean up to 500,000 public-sector jobs losses and an VAT will increase from 17.5% to 20% on 04/01/11.

The US Dollar put in impressive performance on Friday finishing the week almost squarely where it began, amidst exceedingly choppy market conditions. In terms of economic data it was fairly quiet; a Leading Indicators report was the only major event through the US trading session and fell exactly in line with consensus forecasts. However, 9 of 10 of the index’s components pointed to growth through the next three to six months. During the week ahead liquidity will reduce ahead of the Christmas holiday, so price action could be volatile. Economic data from the US is quiet today.

On Thursday the European Union summit produced few surprises and had effectively zero effect on the Euro. That said the Euro traded higher against the US Dollar and the market speculated that the EU stood ready to provide bailout funds in a bid to preserve the monetary union. On Friday a strong German IFO business confidence reported lifted fundamental forecasts for Europe’s largest economy, but German economic growth has never been in doubt; it is the Eurozone periphery that is the concern. This focus was apparent on Friday as Moody’s downgraded Spain to Baa1 and said that it estimates that funding from the Irish central bank may exceed €40 billion.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

Sterling Falls- UK Inflation Higher Than expected

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme(QROPS) should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

Sterling fell to a 3 ½ week low against the euro to €1.1702 on Thursday as Moody’s put Spain on review for a possible downgrade causing concerns of sovereign debt problems are spreading throughout the euro zone. Moody’s did comment that it did not see the possibility of Madrid needing a EU bailout similar to Ireland or Greece. Spanish costs are rising which is making things difficult for the debt ridden nation’s economic recovery.

Sterling also fell to a 3 week low against the US dollar after strong US figures helped boost the dollar. Sterling was also dented by UK unemployment rises 35,000, the first increase since the spring. UK unemployment has risen back over the 2.5 million mark causing fears that Britain is suffering a “jobless recovery”. City economists were expecting a drop of 15,000 in the number of people out of work, which would have lowered the unemployment rate to 7.7%. The rise in unemployment was mainly caused by a drop in public sector employment where 33,000 jobs were lost over the period.

The north east saw the biggest fall in public sector jobs, followed by the south east and west of England. Chris Grayling, the employment minister, said the figures showed the importance of keeping the UK economy growing. "It's essential to create a stable environment where businesses can flourish and create jobs – with those on benefits at the front of the queue to take them up," Grayling said.

Meanwhile the dollar continued its gains against the Euro and Japanese Yen following the release of better than expected consumer price data Empire manufacturing data. CPI rose only a mere 0.1% in November however US empire manufacturing increased in December to 10.57 compared to 11.14 drop in November.

The Euro remains under downward pressure as the troubles in the Eurozone continually mount, which wasn’t helped today by Moody’s warning that Spain is in danger of being downgraded.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

Market Report-QROPS

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

Sterling gains against the dollar yesterday after stronger than expected manufacturing data were short lived after a surge in U.S bond yields lifted the dollar across all the major currencies. Sterling was down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.5723.

However the Pound continued to rise against the Euro supported by further evidence that the UK economy is recovering after the Confederation of British Industry survey showed that UK industrial orders were at their highest in 2 years. It read that the total order book balance had unexpectedly jumped to -3 this month the highest since June 2008 with export orders achieving a 15-year high as the sector benefited from a weaker pound.

“This just bears out the data we have just seen over the past few weeks and months, which suggest we are not seeing the drop-off in growth to the extent that many economists were predicting,” said analyst at CMC Markets.

“Sentiment towards the Euro will continue to struggle, certainly versus Sterling”.

The German export figures fell for the third time in four months and imports saw a modest recovery. Between September and October, exports slipped 1.1% slightly reversing the gain in the previous month, while imports rebounded 0.3%. As a result the trade surplus fell to €14.2 billion from €15.4 billion.

The Euro lost 15 pips against the dollar, after the news was released but immediately recovered by some 23 pips trading at 1.3222. GBP/EUR pushed through the 1.19 barrier for the remainder of the day and briefly touched the 1.1954 level its highest position in nearly 3-weeks.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme- Gerard Associates

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

Yesterdays’ trading was very volatile with the day gearing up for the Trichet’s speech and reports from the ECB.

The euro reacted strongly in what was a difficult day in the currency markets. This followed on from solid gains on Wednesday where it was announced the European Financial Stability Facility- the euro zone bailout fund would be receiving backing from the US. The single currency was boosted by reports the ECB was buying euro zone bonds after its president Jean-Claude Trichet disappointed investors by not announcing an aggressive bond-buying program.

However this may seem to be a short term gain as there is still mounting pressure surrounding the 16 member nation as to the full extent of the debt crisis within its peripheral zones. The aftermath of Trichet’s speech saw the euro weaken to €1.1860 against sterling, unusual as Trichet is usually positive in terms of the single currency. Reports were later issued however that the ECB had been buying up bonds in Portugal and Ireland which saw the euro rise. This process was expected but not at the rate anticipated; instead the markets deemed this bond buying as too soft. The euro finished the days trading at 0.8% up on sterling and 0.7% up on the dollar.

Sterling continued to struggle in the markets even with PMI figures coming out stronger than expected at 51.8 compared to the suggested 51.3, usually if this figure is above 50 we see a bullish reaction from sterling.

However with this stronger than expected results from sterling the focus was still heavily on the ECB announcements, with sterling dropping before the announcements whilst investors waited to see if policymakers would take any measures to help alleviate debt problems in some euro zone countries. Sterling remained quite flat against the dollar and kept trading above its 200 moving average of $1.5350 and finished the day 0.1% down against the dollar, not bad considering the volatility of the days trading.

Today the focus firmly switches to the US as we wait to see what will happen with non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates, both of these reports have the ability to move the markets. Non-farm payrolls is expected to come out lower than previous rates which suggests a slowing economy and would weaken the dollar.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.

Currency and Its Influence

At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.

Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.

Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).

The deteriorating euro zone situation is still the main market mover at the moment, and with the recent Ireland bailout, it seems the talk on the trading floor will remain the same, as bailouts for other euro zone members seem almost imminent.

The pressure on the euro is very evident, as the dollar pulls in the majority of investors bets due to its ‘safe haven’ status. The EUR/USD pairing has seen a fall from as high as $1.4280, to the 10 week low reached yesterday $1.2968.

Sterling has seen a mixed reaction to the euro zone scenario, as the UK economy is still perceived to be risky. Sterling did push to a 9 week high against the weakening euro, reaching €1.1969 in the afternoon. However the safe haven investment into the dollar has seen the pound depreciate to near 10 week low $1.5482.

US Consumer confidence came in at 54.1, above expectations of 52.9 for November, and shortly after the release head of ECB Jean Claude Trichet spoke about the European Central Bank slowing its withdrawal of its support to the regions financial institutions. The ECB meets on Thursday against a backdrop of intensifying pressure on the currency bloc's peripheral states, and is expected to announce how much support it will continue to offer to euro zone banks through the provision of loans. This took some of the risk association out of the markets and sterling pushed back up to around $1.5570

The problem for the euro zone is more countries are being dragged into the firing line for potential bail outs, at the start it seemed that Ireland were definite and Spain and Portugal were on the ‘maybe list. However over the past couple of days the likes of Belgium. Italy and even France have been mentioned as candidates. Yesterday saw the Year on year CPI figure for Europe on par with consensus at 1.9%.

However German unemployment figures for November were weak at -9k compared to the -18k estimations, although the overall euro zone figure for October was on par with consensus at 10.1%.

In the UK British consumer confidence weakened more than expected in November as people were the most downbeat about the prospects for their personal finances in almost two years, a GfK/NOP consumer confidence barometer showed. This data was largely brushed aside as the focus will be on UK PMI figures for November, which are due out at 09.30am today.

Investors will also focus on European PMI which could give the euro a base to work from if a positive figure is revealed.

Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.

This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.