At Gerard Associates Ltd we continue our daily look at factors affecting markets and currencies allowing some insight into conditions affecting exchange rates.
Cash and income timing from a UK Pension or QROPS (Qualifying Recognised Overseas Pension Scheme) should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income taken.
Investment market volatility and currency exchange remains a challenge. The global economics are volatile and unprecedented in history. Currency exchange continues to concern expats with UK Pensions, QROPS and now QNUPS (Qualifying non UK Pension schemes).
Sterling seemed to be recovering against the euro and dollar on Friday as it reached a high of €1.1631 against the euro up from the low of €1.1560 and $1.5963 against the dollar up from the low of $1.5839.
However the on-going concern over the UK’s fragile economy weighed on sentiment as the pound retraced some of its earlier day’s gains in afternoon trading.
Against the dollar, sterling was trading within a tight range. Analysts said it remained confined to a range, below a high of $1.5989 hit on Thursday and a low of $1.5750 hit on Tuesday following a shock contraction in fourth quarter UK gross domestic product.
The UK saw further negative data as consumer confidence in January fell by its highest level in almost 20 years as VAT reduced public spending.
Economists are now speculating that the Bank of England may not be able to increase interest rates as growth in the UK slows, which was made apparent by the release of the Q4 GDP figures on Tuesday which were considerably lower than expectations. Friday’s data will fuel concerns that the UK spending cuts will damage the economy’s growth.
David Cameron said last week that the GDP data was to be expected and should not come as a surprise. “Yes, they were partly driven by the terrible weather which shut down airports, factories and schools but let’s be frank, they also brought home something we have said for months: given the traumas of recent years, the recovery was always going to be choppy.” Cameron said in a speech to the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.
"Martin Weale's vote for higher rates in January is unlikely to be repeated in February," Lloyds analysts said. "Sterling should consequently now be vulnerable to renewed declines, especially after the consumer confidence data overnight, with the $1.60 level in GBP/USD now looking hard to breach on a sustained basis."
Elsewhere the dollar advanced against the euro for the first time in nine days after a government report showed the US economic growth grew in Q4 this was mainly due to consumer spending reaching its highest level in more than 4 years. The data showed the US economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.2% from October through to December. The dollar gained strength as investors retreated to its safe haven as worries over rising civil unrest in Egypt added to the worries over Middle Eastern countries in general.
Gerard Associates Ltd advises expats and people considering living abroad on the technical and currency options available for QROPS Pensions, QROPS, QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice. Our service encompasses Pension including QROPS and QNUPS and investments in a clear format allowing all customers to make an informed choice.
This with the reassurance and security of UK FSA authorised and regulated advice - essential for your security.
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